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NPR’s Steve Inskeep talks with Republican pollster John McLaughlin about how former President Donald Trump can win back the White House in November.
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Now, while the Democrats are wrapping up their convention, former President Trump has been campaigning. He trails Harris in many polling averages. On the website FiveThirtyEight, it is down by an average of three points. So how, if that’s all, does it come back? John McLaughlin, a longtime Trump pollster, insists Trump doesn’t need to.
JOHN MCLAUGHLIN: When you think about where the polls are and how inflated and biased they are against us, we’ve seen this before. It’s better than 2016 and 2020. So we’re good.
INSKEEP: McLaughlin insists public polls are skewed against his candidate. Now, you might say that, of course, the Trump poll said that. Our colleague Mara Liasson recently described the optimism of the Trump camp as wishful thinking. At the same time, independent experts are not sure if this year’s vote will properly capture the race. In each of the last two presidential elections, Trump was further ahead at this point in the summer than he is now, and he has closed the gap. His defeat in 2020 was closer to the vote.
MCLAUGHLIN: The last two elections were about turnout. There was a great battle of participation. Trump won in 2016 precisely because he brought in 9 million more voters who didn’t vote in the 2012 election, you know, he changed 206 counties from Obama to Trump, and it was because of the extra voters that they don’t usually vote. So it brings in new voters that some polls may have a hard time finding, but they are there, and we have them in our polls. Of course, there are always polls out there that – you know, whether it’s Harvard-Harris or some of these others, they pick them up in their polls.
INSKEEP: You said you like the Harvard Harris Poll, which is a public poll. They do it monthly. We don’t have the one for the end of August that would show the last weeks of the presidential campaign, but they did one at the end of July. And already at that point, they showed a shift from Trump to Harris, even though he was still in charge. Will you accept that something has happened in the last month or so that has changed the race?
MCLAUGHLIN: Oh, yes. And by the way, I’m not saying it didn’t happen. I just said that…
INSKEEP: Yes.
MCLAUGHLIN: …It’s a lot more polarized and less volatile than people made it out to be.
INSKEEP: Let me ask you a few questions up front here. Nikki Haley, who, as you know, was once one of Trump’s presidential rivals, said during the primaries that the first party to throw out their 80-year-old candidate would win. It turned out that the Democrats were the first party to do this. What does Trump have to do with that particular dynamic? He is facing a younger candidate who can say, I want to turn the page.
MCLAUGHLIN: Well, first of all, Nikki Haley was not a good prognosticator in the primaries.
INSKEEP: Well, he lost, OK.
MCLAUGHLIN: You know, second is, like, the reality of this race is that Donald Trump is in great health. You know, he never drank. He’ll get up, give a two-hour speech, and then fly to another city and give another two-hour speech, and he’ll work all day.
INSKEEP: But he’s also 78 and says a lot of things that aren’t true. I mean, he, you know…
MCLAUGHLIN: Well, he says a lot of things that are true. And he is given to hyperbole, but he tries to make his point, to get people’s attention. And the reality is that there is a vast majority of voters who do not feel that things in the country are going in the right direction. And she’s been there for 3 1/2 years.
INSKEEP: Well, you said Trump should be able to beat Harris on the issues. You’re not the only ally of former President Trump to say this. That’s quite explicitly not what it does. He said out loud, I was told to be polite with the other person. I’m not going to do it. I have the right to personal attacks. He made a lot of personal attacks. It does not seem to be really his theory of the case, to talk in detail about the problems.
MCLAUGHLIN: Well, he did. Not getting coverage. And…
INSKEEP: I mean, you say – I saw the speeches. He says something about immigration, but then – it’s his biggest success in immigration – but then he moves on to other things.
MCLAUGHLIN: Most of it – by the way, I mean, here’s a guy who – they’ve been attacking him for legal issues for a year that are politically biased, that are politically motivated. They are trying to take away their wealth. They are trying to take away his civil rights that he could run for president. And what you have here is you have a president who is coming out – like yesterday, he was giving a speech on national security. And he was giving a speech about — and today, he’s talking about the border in Arizona.
INSKEEP: In that speech, which came shortly after we talked yesterday, Trump talked about migrant crime. He gave anecdotes of specific crimes, although violent crime statistics are down. He talked about the Rolls Royce of border walls and even went off topic to accuse his opponents of lying. Also yesterday, news broke that Robert F. Kennedy might drop his independent presidential bid.
MCLAUGHLIN: It probably helps us a little bit. Most of his vote is already down because it’s more of a two-way race between President Trump and Kamala Harris. You know, it seems to be a very close but very winnable race for President Trump in a two-way race.
INSKEEP: John McLaughlin, it’s a pleasure talking to you. Thank you so much.
MCLAUGHLIN: Thanks for the opportunity. I appreciate it.
INSKEEP: It’s a long-standing poll for former President Trump.
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